The big brains over at The Economist have been running the 2024 election data and believe former President Donald Trump has a 2-in-3 chance of defeating President Biden in November.
“Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the likely electoral vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” The Economist says.
The model shows Trump winning 296 Electoral College votes with Biden receiving 242. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
Last month, the model showed Trump with a 54-in-100 chance of winning.
More over at The Economist:
In November, America will vote for its next president. Who will return to the White House?
Bookmark this page to stay up to date with our forecast model and the latest polling data https://t.co/2LMmk1SaHa 👇
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 12, 2024
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