According to a Daily Wire report, former President Donald Trump is performing more than 3 points better against Kamala Harris than he was against President Joe Biden in 2020 at this point in the campaign. He’s also polling better against Harris than he was against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
From The Daily Wire:
The top pollster for Cygnal — one of the most accurate GOP polling firms in the country — said the historical polling data is bad news for Harris.
“When you look at where Biden was against Trump at this point, Harris is doing much worse in comparison,” Cygnal’s Brett Buchanan said. “In Arizona, she’s trailing Biden’s margin among younger voters by 3x (+11 v +31). Trump holds trust on the two key issues – inflation and immigration. This race is still Trump’s.”
Cygnal’s latest national poll shows Harris leading Trump by just 2 points — close to the RCP national average, which has Harris up by 1.5 points. At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by more than 7 points nationally, per RCP.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls gives Harris a slightly bigger lead than RCP, showing her at 48.1% to Trump’s 45.5% as of Friday morning. In the major swing states, Trump barely leads in Georgia and Arizona, while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight. In Nevada and North Carolina, the two candidates are within 0.3 points of each other.
And what about the impact of the debate? Buchanan says it won’t move the needle much.
“Mostly partisans watched the debate. Each candidate gave their base what they wanted. Undecided voters just see clips later,” Buchanan added. “Trump gave more and better sound bites, even if there are viral ones the Dems intend to hurt him. Harris left few to no sound bites and certainly did NOT deliver on economic policy specifics that matter to undecided voters.”
More over at The Daily Wire:
‘This Race Is Still Trump’s’: Kamala Trails Dems’ 2016, 2020 Polling Numbers https://t.co/9AANAKIDIe pic.twitter.com/LeGLLEUtHi
— Daily Wire News (@DailyWireNews) September 13, 2024
