“It isn’t a toss-up.”
Famed polling whiz Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight says former President Donald Trump has a 66% chance of beating President Joe Biden in the presidential election later this year.
“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver, who formerly ran polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” substack.
According to Fox News, “Silver’s forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% of winning the electoral college, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance. However, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.”
“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” Silver wrote.
Silver noted that his model adjusts “for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of [Robert F. Kennedy] Jr., and house effects,” and added that his polling averages “weight more reliable polls more heavily.”
Silver stressed it’s time for Biden to turn it around or hand it off to someone who can; “Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea,” Silver added.
“And he’s really not that far behind,” Silver wrote of Biden. “But the race isn’t a toss-up. That’s at best a white lie — a convenient fiction that allows everyone to shirk accountability for their forecasts and their decisions.”
Polling guru Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning presidential election https://t.co/TLteK7Eb47
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 26, 2024
