According to polling guru Nate Silver, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election are currently the highest they’ve been since July 30th — further evidence that Kamala Harris’ honeymoon period is over.
“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote in his latest election forecast bulletin. “And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent.”
From The New York Post:
The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance at winning the Electoral College in November compared to Harris’ 41.6% chance.
Silver’s model predicts that Harris has a 58.9% chance at winning the national popular vote – which has no bearing on the winner of the race – but that Trump will rack up 274 Electoral College votes, topping the vice president’s 263 estimated Electoral College total.
“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” Silver wrote on X.
There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer.https://t.co/SPS1OGKNw2
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 4, 2024
More over at The New York Post:
Top pollster finds Trump gains momentum against Harris – 58% chance of winning 2024 race https://t.co/utZoAkO3yA pic.twitter.com/KcaVEiA1yZ
— New York Post (@nypost) September 4, 2024
