Electoral College Blowout? Nate Silver's Latest Projection Has Trump Trouncing Harris, Winning All Battlegrounds

Could Trump win in a landslide?

According to the latest 2024 presidential election forecast from polling guru Nate Silver, former President Donald Trump is poised to win every battleground contest, securing an electoral college blowout.

Silver’s model predicts Trump will win 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 226. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton with 304 electoral votes in 2016.

From Mediaite:

Silver’s model, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, marks a shift from earlier projections that favored Harris, or Trump narrowly. The pollster notes the impact of Sunday’s New York Times/Siena College poll, one of his model’s “highest rated pollsters,” that put Trump ahead of Harris – 48 percent to 47 percent – well within the survey’s 3-point error margin.

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Crucially, Silver’s prediction places Trump ahead in all the swing states ahead of Tuesday’s ABC News-host presidential debate — which, the pollster caveats, could blunt the impact of the New York Times/Siena poll.

While Silver’s latest prediction paints a bleak picture for Harris, other models show a more competitive race. RealClearPolitics has Harris narrowly ahead with 273 electoral votes, while Project 538 forecasts a victory for Harris with 281 electoral votes to Trump’s 257. Still, the margin between the two candidates remains razor-thin in key states.

Interestingly, Silver’s forecast still gives Harris a slim edge in the popular vote, with a 56 percent chance to come out on top there compared to Trump’s 44 percent.

Pro-Harris pundits have already come out to try and deny the significance of the NYT/Siena poll, with many using a two-week-old ABC News poll as evidence that Harris isn’t slipping in the polls.

There is 0 chance Matthew Dowd would be saying to ignore the NYT poll if it said Harris +5 instead of Trump +1, each of which is about equidistant from the current polling average.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 9, 2024