'3 Caution Points for Democrats': CNN's Harry Enten Delivers Reality Check on Kamala Poll Numbers [Watch]

CNN’s senior polling analyst Harry Enten delivered a reality check to Democrats who are elated with Kamala Harris’ poll numbers showing her pulling closer — and in some cases ahead — of former President Donald Trump.

Enten summarized his “3 caution points for Democrats” in a post on X on Tuesday:

1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May

Watch Enten’s analysis above.

3 caution points for Democrats…

1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024

Democratic strategist and CNN contributor David Axelrod shared similar calls for caution earlier this week – specifically about the numbers in the latest New York Times poll:

As for NYT polls in PA, MI and WI today, some of the internal numbers seem improbable–42% for Harris among non-college whites, for one eg. If you adjust for them, you’re probably looking at basically tied races (maybe a tick better for Harris in WI), which is where most, private, high-quality polling has them. Still, this is a big shift.

As for NYT polls in PA, MI and WI today, some of the internal numbers seem improbable–42% for Harris among non-college whites, for one eg. If you adjust for them, you're probably looking at basically tied races (maybe a tick better for Harris in WI), which is where most,…

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) August 10, 2024